Ukraine war Three ways the conflict could go in 2024

Previous wars, like the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, too have hinged on such external assistance. At different times in this conflict Russia has resembled Iran’s position, and Ukraine has mirrored Iraq’s in that war — if only incompletely — said Jeremy Morris, professor of global studies at Aarhus University in Denmark. Meanwhile, Western powers have pledged coveted battle tanks to Ukraine, and there is much talk of a new Russian spring offensive.

Many Russian nationalists, though, perceive Ukraine as a breakaway region of greater Russia. During President Putin's marathon state address on Feb. 21, he accused Western countries of attempting "to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine," making war the only way to "protect the people in our historical lands." All these measures were approved when both the House and the Senate were controlled by Democrats. Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well. "We want peace around the world," 70-year-old Kyiv resident Nina Albul recently told my colleague Hanna Palamarenko, "but we also want the world to know that it's okay for enslaved people to fight back." According to a poll by the independent Razumkov Centre, a majority of Ukrainians said they believe Ukraine is "heading in the right direction" in light of the war.

Russia attacks Ukraine: More coverage

The problem with the EU lies with Hungary’s veto of any funds to Ukraine, but either this will soon be overcome or, even if not, there are workarounds that will lead eventually to the desired result. The problem in the US reflects Republican efforts to tie support for overseas causes to action to stop immigrants coming in from Mexico. There is enough money left for one more military aid package, but then it depends on a new deal. The worst outcome would be, “at the cost of enormous losses”, the liberation of all of Ukraine, which will “remain in ruins with a population that mostly hates us” and a “redemption” that would take more than a decade.

• Both sides are burning through arsenal at breakneck speed, setting off a mad scramble for remaining Soviet-era equipment such as S-300 air defence missiles, T-72 tanks and artillery shells.









• Some analysts believe that the fear of escalation is due to Russia having nuclear weapons — the fear of "loose nukes".









• In the Second World War, it was resolved by the destruction of the Nazi regime, the rewriting of Germany’s constitution, and the partition of Germany.









• In World War I, a poorly motivated and provisioned Russian army collapsed, helping bring down an out-of-touch czar.









• The U.S. talk about integrated deterrence also remains an all too vacuous slogan.

Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. A little earlier, we told you about a report in the Financial Times that the EU was proposing to sabotage Hungary's economy if Budapest blocks further aid for Ukraine this week. His incomings fell in 2022 as he earned less rental income from real estate he owned because of the outbreak of the war.

Why Putin won’t back down

But Ukraine joining NATO could itself be how the war ends, consistent with Biden’s current policy — and at a time and on terms set by Ukraine and its allies, not by Russia. Gaining security within NATO as a strong, pluralistic, democratic state would absolutely count as a victory for Ukraine — arguably as big as quickly regaining Crimea. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests.

• The nature of these U.S. failures changed over time, but they cumulatively proved to be far more important than the Afghan war successes in battle—almost all of which were U.S. or allied-driven.









• Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country.









• The U.S. Congress approved four separate spending bills for Ukraine in the past year totaling $112 billion.









• The classic example from the First World War was the Bolsheviks’ refusal, in the wake of their seizure of power in Russia, to continue the fight against Germany; proclaiming “neither war nor peace,” they simply left the negotiations at Brest-Litovsk.

Neither side has been wiling to come to the negotiation table since the beginning of the war, dashing any hopes for an end to the fighting any time soon. The current outlook for a negotiated deal would likely involve Ukraine ceding some territory to Russia, analysts say. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley has previously suggested there was no military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and diplomacy was needed to end the war. A possible escalation could involve Russian forces turning the tables on the battlefield and making a push for the south of Ukraine, Professor Clarke said. All signs are pointing to a renewed push from Russian forces, likely involving thousands of soldiers in battalion and brigade-sized attacks, as Moscow continues to hammer Ukraine's energy network. Both sides are burning through arsenal at breakneck speed, setting off a mad scramble for remaining Soviet-era equipment such as S-300 air defence missiles, T-72 tanks and artillery shells.

In Vietnam, the United States exaggerated its civil and military successes in shaping an effective South Vietnamese government and military forces that could stand on their own. https://telegra.ph/Latest-Trump-News-on-What-the-Fk-Matt-Kiser-04-17 reached a peace settlement with North Vietnam after an apparent U.S.-driven military victory based on false assumptions about a broader level of grand strategic success. It then left a fragile South Vietnamese state and phased out it much of its aid, creating an outcome where South Vietnam’s military and civil weaknesses prevented it from surviving. So far, however, the United States has failed to lead effectively in several key areas of grand strategy—repeating some aspects of its failed approach to grand strategy in its other recent wars. In Korea, U.S. efforts to push a military victory too far into North Korea without considering the grand strategic impact on China forced U.S.-led forces to fight a longer war that ended in a stalemate where the outcome was a ceasefire, rather than a true peace.